The Decadal Global Climate Bet – June 2015 Update

The Decadal Global Climate Bet is now 4.5 years into the race.  Here is a quick update of progress.

An interesting change has taken place with the data.  UAH has extensively revised their dataset to version 6.  I have updated my spreadsheet using UAH’s updated v6 data.

[UAH v6 is still a Beta version as at June 2015]

(Note: The above link is to Beta2 data, and it is no longer valid.  Here is a link to UAH’s  Beta3 data, UAH Beta3 data)

The difference between Beta2 and Beta 3 is very small.  The graph below is based on Beta2 data.

Notice the gap between the decades.  This decade (starting Jan 2011) is tracking noticeably cooler than the previous decade (starting Jan 2001).

Climate Bet, June 2015

The spreadsheet is available here.

Refer to this earlier post for further details.

Oh.  And by the way – there’s still no sign of that El Niño as far as I can see.

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6 Responses to The Decadal Global Climate Bet – June 2015 Update

  1. Pingback: Global Cooling…Current 2011-2020 Decade Running Colder Than Previous 2001-2010 Decade | NoTricksZone

  2. globalnomad says:

    about 5 yrs ago, I was also deeply involved in discussions with rob Honeycutt.
    He bet $1000,- that the next 5 years would be warmer than the last.
    it may amuse someone with patience to scroll back and find (and make sceen-shots) in the archives of peter Sinclair’s discussion page:
    https://www.youtube.com/user/greenman3610/discussion
    I’d donate the prize to a charity of the first finder’s choice.

  3. Simon Filiatrault says:

    I found this interesting and learned some things with your Excel… But, I am not sure that accumulating anomalies from 2 range is really a good way to measure if one period is warmer of cooler than the other. This is very sensitive to start-end point.
    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/mean:12/plot/rss/from:2001/to:2010/trend/plot/rss/from:2011/trend

    You could have a peak in one range and the other flat range flat, does it make one higher?

    Not sure how to qualify a small range of 10y as colder or warmer honestly.

    • Anthony says:

      Those are fair enough comments Simon. I understand the sensitivity to the chosen start points and end points. The definition of the two decades were set by the groups who agreed the bet. They also decided the temperature series to use. I am simply adhering to their agreement, and then presenting it in a way so that we can enjoy the comparison on the way. Thanks for stopping by and sharing some thoughts.

  4. DWR54 says:

    Are we sure that UAH v6.0 is now the official UAH data set. All the files suggest it’s still in Beta, which suggests it hasn’t yet cleared review.

    It’s confusing, because the UAH official monthly report mentions only v6.0 in the comments, yet when you select ‘monthly average data’ from the supplied link you get directed only to v5.6: http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

    Perhaps this should be clarified, given its implications for the bet.

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