Three years ago, early 2011, a decadal global climate bet was made. At that time, December 2010 marked the end of a 10 year period. January 2011 marked the beginning of the next. The transition stimulated the formation of a decadal global climate bet. Would the next decade be hotter than the decade just past? Would it be cooler? Or would the difference be so little to be statistically insignificant?
And so the coolists (led by Pierre Gosselin – NoTricksZone) and the warmists (led by Rob Honeycutt – Skeptical Science) are having a bet. They agreed to use a composite of Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) lower troposphere temperature – close to the earth’s surface. The result will be accepted without quibbling, as it was agreed between them that those series are the best that we’ve got. The average of the two series will decide the bet!
I’ve tried a couple of ways of picturing the comparative ‘race’ between the decades. The first way is here, and the second way is here. I prefer the second method, and this is what I have shown below. It uses an accumulating total, adding 1/120th of the average of the UAH and RSS monthly global anomalies month by month. The sum of these numbers after 120 months (10 years) is the global decadal average.
Tonight I downloaded the data to December 2013 from UAH and RSS and the graph shows the race position after three complete years. After three years the coolists are in the lead.