The Decadal Global Climate Bet – Dec 2014 update, 4 years into the race

Four years ago, early 2011, a decadal global temperature bet was made. And with all the hype about 2014 being the hottest year, now is a good time to check out progress with ‘the bet’. But first a little background for any newcomers.

At the time the bet was made (early 2011) December 2010 marked the end of the previous ten year period. January 2011 marked the beginning of the next. The transition stimulated the formation of a decadal global climate bet.

And so the coolists (led by Pierre Gosselin – NoTricksZone) and the warmists (led by Rob Honeycutt – Skeptical Science) are having a bet.  They agreed to use a composite of Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) lower troposphere temperature – close to the earth’s surface.  They agreed that the result would be accepted without quibbling, as it was agreed between them that those series are the best that we’ve got.  The average of the two series will decide the bet!

I have shown ‘the race’ as it progresses by graphing an accumulating total, ie: adding 1/120th of the average of the UAH and RSS monthly global anomalies month by month.  The sum of these numbers after 120 months (10 years) is of course the global decadal average.

Climate bet at 4 years

We are now 40% through the race … and clearly it is still close with the coolists in the lead by half a nose.

Now back to the hype we’re hearing about the ‘hot’ 2014. Notice that during 2014 (months 37 to 48) the green line just keeps trucking along at the same basic slope as it has for the past few years and much of the previous decade too. There was even a small El Nino in 2014, whose effect is conspicuous by its absence. Maybe the heat that is missing in the observed atmospheric temperature trend is hiding in the ocean?  😉

A spreadsheet with all the data and graph is available for download from this folder: https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0BwCJWmtRR6xeMnVaOHBrTWRVRmc&usp=sharing

Earlier posts:

http://www.kiwithinker.com/2013/05/the_decadal_global_climate_bet/

http://www.kiwithinker.com/2013/11/a-decadal-global-climate-bet-a-second-view-of-the-race/

http://www.kiwithinker.com/2014/01/a-decadal-global-climate-bet-three-years-down-the-track/

 

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13 Responses to The Decadal Global Climate Bet – Dec 2014 update, 4 years into the race

  1. Pingback: Activist Dana Nuccitelli Starting To Sweat? Satellite Data Show Current Decade Running COOLER Than The Previous!

  2. Looking forward to the coming years. I suspect it’ll get even closer next year, but ocean, solar factors will work in our favor from 2016 on. But who knows!

  3. John F. Hultquist says:

    The chart – accumulating global average temperature – shows 2 noticeable bends in the red line and 1 in the green line. Then the lines swing upward again.

    Have these been discussed elsewhere?
    They seem to be associated with years of less Arctic Ocean summer sea ice. This allows the water there to shed heat. Floating ice prevents water from being in contact with the cold air as late summer turns to fall. If such is the cause, then there is an interesting possibility.
    Some people – coolists – think Earth’s atmosphere will cool over the next 5 years with the implication that Arctic Ocean ice will not get as low as it has during recent years. Thus the water there will not give up as much heat and the atmosphere will not cool quite as fast.
    Other people – warmists – take great pleasure in pointing out the “ice free” ocean is just in sight. “Ice free” is in quotes here because it doesn’t mean no ice; the goal apparently is below 1 M sq. Km.
    Anyway, both coolists and warmists can hype the same phenomenon. And will.

    (posted at both ‘ntz’ and ‘K-t’)

  4. Pingback: The Decadal Climate Bet | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

  5. Why coolists will loose. Because they are scientifically ignorant:
    “Some people – coolists – think Earth’s atmosphere will cool over the next 5 years with the implication that Arctic Ocean ice will not get as low as it has during recent years. Thus the water there will not give up as much heat and the atmosphere will not cool quite as fast.”

    Less ice means more absorption of solar radiation which means warmer, not cooler water. At 0 degrees C there is little more evaporation of water than there is sublimation of adjacent ice. Hence almost no difference in heat loss that way. However ice reflects much more radiation than open water But again, coolists are way to scientifically ignorant to know this.

    Anyway, I am not betting. Even the coolists agree that things are getting warmer. The only question is how fast things are getting warmer, and there are too many unknowns. For example, a large volcanic explosion could put up enough particulates to shield the earth from sunlight and result in actual cooling. This happened with Mt. St. Helens, El Chichón and others.

    • Anthony says:

      Thanks for the comments. The bet isn’t about ignorance or intelligence. The decision is to be based solely on the average of the two satellite series, UAH and RSS, as agreed by Pierre Gosselin and Rob Honeycutt. I intend to do 6 monthly updates, so feel free to come back and see how things are turning out each January and July.

  6. Doug Cotton says:

     
    May I draw EVERYONE’S attention to the important comment ..

    EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT CONVECTION BUT WERE AFRAID TO ASK.

  7. Ed Caryl says:

    Anthony, Roy Spencer just published a revision to the UHA data set, version 6.0. It is now much closer to the RSS data set, and will change the plot above. See: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/04/version-6-0-of-the-uah-temperature-dataset-released-new-lt-trend-0-11-cdecade/

  8. Pingback: The Decadal Global Climate Bet – June 2015 Update | Kiwi Thinker

  9. Pingback: The Decadal Climate Bet – June 2015 | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

  10. william partridge says:

    This is a great bet. Will follow carefully. Seems like henrick svensmark’s cosmic cloud formation already taking effect. Never seem to get many sunny days now mid september and grass growth woefully slow.

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