The Decadal Global Climate Bet – Now at the half way mark

Updated to December 2015 (month 60/120):

We’re now at the half way mark; and the present decade is still running cooler than the preceding decade. The average temperature anomaly for the previous decade is 0.202 C. The average temperature anomaly for the past 5 years is 0.184 C.

The recent uptick at months 58 through 60 is the beginning of the atmospheric warming caused by the current El Nino. It’s barely visible but definitely there. But I wonder how long it will last? If it continues along the lines of the 2010 El Nino, (which lasted about 9 months with an average anomaly of about 0.47 C) the lines will be very close in July 2016, and the lead could pass to the warmists. However, a La Nina typically follows an El Nino. La Nina brings a cooling, which would likely pass the lead back to the coolists.

Climate Bet, Dec 2015More detail here:  Climate Bet Page

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4 Responses to The Decadal Global Climate Bet – Now at the half way mark

  1. John Bennetts says:

    The current decade is not running cooler than the previous decade.

    What the graph shows is that the rate of climb of temperature is slightly slower than for the previous decade.

    The globe is still warming and this decade has added 0.1 degrees so far, compared with last decade’s 0.2 degrees.

    • Anthony says:

      Thanks for your interest John. At the half way mark the accumulated total had got to 0.093, which when extrapolated to 10 years would come to 0.186 (multiply by 120/60). This is a little cooler than the decade before.

      However, it is another story now thanks to the recent big El Nino. The latest figures are for month 77 (May 2017) where the accumulated total is 0.162, which when extrapolated to 10 years comes to 0.252 (multiply by 120/77), warmer than the decade before.

      Take a look at the Page dedicated to the bet. The button is under the banner. I am continuing to update the bet here each month or two. The effect of the recent El Nino stands out strongly.

    • Peter Lang says:

      John,

      The warming is primarily due to natural variability. But most important is that the impacts of global warming, if it does occur, would be positive, not negative – as it has been for the past century. This is what the alarmists do not want to discuss. Remember, the planet is currently in about the severest ice age that it has been since complex life began (about 650 Mya).

    • Peter Lang says:

      See Scotese (2015) Figure 15 and text for refernce for last sentence: https://www.academia.edu/12082909/Some_thoughts_on_Global_Climate_Change_The_Transition_from_Icehouse_to_Hothouse

      See Figure 3, Bottom panel for source for statement that impacts of global warming would be positive, not negative (excluding the projection of energy which is almost certainly incorrect) : http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/sites/default/files/climate_change.pdf

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